Milwaukee Brewers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Rhys HoskinsBatting4-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Logan HendersonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hoskins singled to left, Contreras scored and Turang scored.9–5
- 8Ramírez homered to center (420 feet), Hedges scored and Schneemann scored.7–5
- 7Hoskins homered to left center (396 feet), Contreras scored.7–2
- 6Durbin hit by pitch, Hoskins scored, Collins to second, Bauers to third.5–2
- 6Bauers singled to right, Turang scored, Hoskins to third.4–2
- 6Hoskins singled to left, Contreras scored, Hoskins to second, Turang to third.3–2
- 5Frelick homered to center (400 feet).2–2
- 4Jones singled to left, Ramírez scored.1–2
- 2Manzardo homered to center (395 feet).1–1
- 2Bauers doubled to left, Contreras scored, Hoskins to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 53%
- ML MIL +105 / CLE -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- CLE: Elo 50.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -114
- MIL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.1 – 4.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −3 | MIL: Logan Henderson: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +4 Elo | CLE 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.119th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 308–16 | Road vs home | 14–710th of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149327th of 30 |
| 12th of 301518 | Elo rating | 151214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–22 | 19–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–11 | 7–11 |
| Underdog | 9–11 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders | 16–27 | 21–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 5–3 CLE in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.