Milwaukee Brewers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting2-4
- Quinn PriesterPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Manzardo tripled to left, Ramírez scored.0–2
- 1Ramírez homered to right (348 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 55%
- ML MIL +115 / CLE -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 51.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -124
- MIL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.0 – 4.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | −18 | MIL: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.94 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.92 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +9 Elo | CLE 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.119th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 23rd of 308–15 | Road vs home | 13–710th of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149226th of 30 |
| 11th of 301520 | Elo rating | 151014th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–21 | 18–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–11 | 6–11 |
| Underdog | 9–10 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders | 16–26 | 21–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 5–2 CLE in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.