Milwaukee Brewers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jake BauersBatting2-4
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Gabriel AriasBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Santana walked, Martínez scored, Ramírez to second, Kwan to third.0–5
- 6Manzardo singled to center, Ramírez scored.0–4
- 4Arias doubled to center, Naylor scored, Ramírez scored and Santana scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML MIL -120 / CLE +100
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 48.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -109
- CLE +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.3 – 4.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +18 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Ben Lively: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +9 Elo | CLE 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.119th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.523rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 21st of 308–14 | Road vs home | 12–711th of 30 |
| 17th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149128th of 30 |
| 11th of 301522 | Elo rating | 150714th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–20 | 17–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–11 | 5–11 |
| Underdog | 9–9 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders | 16–25 | 21–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 5–1 CLE in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.