Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Reds- Will BensonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ramírez homered to right (401 feet).4–5
- 5Naylor homered to center (398 feet).3–5
- 4Santana singled to center, Kwan scored and Manzardo scored.2–5
- 3Hays homered to left (375 feet).0–5
- 2Espinal reached on infield single to shortstop, McLain scored on throwing error by shortstop Arias.0–4
- 2Benson homered to right (361 feet), Lux scored and Steer scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 52%
- ML CLE -120 / CIN +100
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 53.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -109
- CIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.8 – 4.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −19 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.93 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +24 Elo | CLE 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.112th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 8th of 3011–10 | Road vs home | 10–1222nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 148730th of 30 |
| 15th of 301509 | Elo rating | 149221st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–24 | 24–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–12 | 8–14 |
| Underdog | 12–12 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 22–21 | 18–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 5–3 CIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.