Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Royce LewisBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Sal FrelickBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hoskins hit sacrifice fly to left, Contreras scored.2–5
- 7Lee singled to left, Larnach scored.2–4
- 4Lewis homered to left center (417 feet).1–4
- 3Frelick singled to center, Hoskins scored, Collins to third.0–4
- 3Collins singled to center, Contreras scored and Yelich scored, Hoskins to second.0–3
- 2Frelick singled to right, Yelich scored, Hoskins to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML MIN +110 / MIL -140
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- MIL: Elo 57.0%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -123
- MIN +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.5 – 4.0 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | +9 | MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 1.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +49 Elo | MIL 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.216th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 15th of 3011–14 | Road vs home | 12–916th of 30 |
| 26th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149915th of 30 |
| 15th of 301514 | Elo rating | 151513th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–17 | 22–24 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–9 | 12–11 |
| Underdog | 13–8 | 10–13 |
| Overs–unders | 17–29 | 17–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–5 MIL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.