Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting4-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting2-3
- Tobias MyersPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Keirsey Jr. singled to left, Clemens scored, Bader to second.7–0
- 6Lee hit sacrifice fly to right, Larnach scored.6–0
- 5Clemens homered to right center (380 feet).5–0
- 4Lee singled to center, Larnach scored, Jeffers to third.4–0
- 3France singled to right, Jeffers scored, Lee to second.3–0
- 2Vázquez singled to center, Lewis scored.2–0
- 1Jeffers homered to left center (420 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML MIN -125 / MIL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 46.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- MIL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.9 – 3.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +1 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Tobias Myers: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +25 Elo | MIL 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 18th of 3010–14 | Road vs home | 12–816th of 30 |
| 25th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 15th of 301511 | Elo rating | 151812th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–17 | 22–23 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–9 | 12–11 |
| Underdog | 13–8 | 10–12 |
| Overs–unders | 17–28 | 17–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–5 MIL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.