Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jackson JobePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kwan singled to left, Naylor scored.3–1
- 6Torkelson homered to left center (405 feet).2–1
- 1Santana reached on infield single to shortstop, Ramírez scored.2–0
- 1Ramírez tripled to right, Kwan scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML CLE +100 / DET -120
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.1 pts
- DET: Elo 58.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- CLE +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.2 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +6 | CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · DET: Jackson Jobe: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +58 Elo | DET 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.78th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.53rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 11th of 3013–14 | Road vs home | 17–62nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149720th of 30 |
| 16th of 301510 | Elo rating | 15356th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–27 | 28–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–14 | 16–14 |
| Underdog | 15–13 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders | 23–26 | 28–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 15–17 DET in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 32.
- May 22CLE 7 @ DET 0Picked DET 52%Miss
- Oct 12DET 3 @ CLE 7PlayoffsPicked CLE 52%Hit
- Oct 10CLE 5 @ DET 4PlayoffsPicked CLE 52%Hit
- Oct 9CLE 0 @ DET 3PlayoffsPicked CLE 51%Miss
- Oct 7DET 3 @ CLE 0PlayoffsPicked DET 53%Hit
- Oct 5DET 0 @ CLE 7PlayoffsPicked CLE 54%Hit
- Jul 30CLE 5 @ DET 0Picked CLE 55%Hit
- Jul 29CLE 8 @ DET 4Picked CLE 59%Hit