Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Carlos SantanaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ramírez singled to center, Kwan scored.5–1
- 9Martínez hit sacrifice fly to right, Noel scored, Kwan to third.4–1
- 8Santana homered to right (384 feet).3–1
- 6Jones hit sacrifice fly to center, Santana scored.2–1
- 6Arias walked, Ramírez scored, Schneemann to second, Santana to third.1–1
- 3Jeffers singled to center, Castro scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML CLE +105 / MIN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 55.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- CLE +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.6 – 3.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +3 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +38 Elo | MIN 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.43rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.89th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 15th of 3011–14 | Road vs home | 16–63rd of 30 |
| 24th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149425th of 30 |
| 17th of 301504 | Elo rating | 151314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–27 | 29–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–14 | 16–10 |
| Underdog | 13–13 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders | 23–24 | 18–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 20–11 MIN in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 31.