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Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast

FinalFanDuel SN DET, MLBN, MLB.TV, CLEGuardians.TV

Away

Guardians

27-22

7–0

at

Home

Tigers

33-18

CLE 48%DET 52%

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Comerica Park · FanDuel SN DET, MLBN, MLB.TV, CLEGuardians.TV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.

DET75%50%75%CLEStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Guardians
  • Angel MartinezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
  • Tanner BibeePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Tigers
  • Javier BaezBatting2-3
  • Jack FlahertyPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 K

Scoring summary

  • 9Thomas hit sacrifice fly to center, Martínez scored.7–0
  • 9Martínez doubled to left, Naylor scored and Schneemann scored.6–0
  • 9Naylor grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Santana scored on error, Naylor second, Schneemann safe at third on error.4–0
  • 5Martínez homered to right (373 feet).3–0
  • 4Santana doubled to center, Manzardo scored and Ramírez scored.2–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Tigers 52%

Toss-upMiss
CLE 48%DET 52%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
DET 52%
ML CLE +100 / DET -120
Pre-line forecast
DET 54%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DET 53%
Ratings vs. market
+0.9 pts
DET: Elo 53.1%, market 52.2%
Fair odds
DET -109
CLE +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
CLE 3.7 – 3.8 DET
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCLEDETWhy
Team rating15061538Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+8−20CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 1.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsDET +21 EloDET 53.1%
Market-implied ratingsDET 54.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDET 54.0%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastDET 52.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers compared, with each team's league rank
CLEStatDET
22nd of 304.0Runs scored5.34th of 30
19th of 304.4Runs allowed3.65th of 30
22nd of 30−0.4Margin+1.72nd of 30
26th of 303–7Last 107–35th of 30
13th of 3012–14Road vs home17–51st of 30
22nd of 301495Opponent Elo149721st of 30
17th of 301506Elo rating15386th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

GuardiansTigers
1450150015501600league averageAprAugDecAprAug

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCLEDET
Run line21–2728–22
Last 104–63–7
Favorite7–1416–13
Underdog14–1312–9
Overs–unders23–2528–22
Overs–unders, last 102–86–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

CLE 14–17 DET in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 31.