San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Sam HuffBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wood doubled to left, Abrams scored.3–2
- 3Nuñez scored on Ray wild pitch.3–1
- 3Nuñez scored on Ray wild pitch.3–1
- 3Ramos grounded out to shortstop, Yastrzemski scored.3–0
- 3Huff homered to left center (379 feet).2–0
- 2Adames grounded out to pitcher, Flores scored, Chapman to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 57%
- ML SF -150 / WSH +125
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- SF: Elo 57.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- SF -135
- WSH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.1 – 3.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −10 | SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · WSH: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +54 Elo | SF 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.314th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.225th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.923rd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 8th of 3013–13 | Road vs home | 13–1321st of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 13th of 301516 | Elo rating | 146624th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–27 | 28–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–20 | 0–9 |
| Underdog | 15–7 | 28–15 |
| Overs–unders | 28–24 | 24–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 6–9 WSH in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 15.