Kansas City Royals at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Steven CruzPitching2.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ramos homered to left center (387 feet), Wade Jr. scored.8–4
- 5Garcia hit sacrifice fly to left, Fermin scored, Massey to third.8–2
- 5Massey singled to left, Waters scored, Fermin to second.7–2
- 4Bailey homered to center (403 feet).6–2
- 4Perez homered to right center (397 feet), Witt Jr. scored.6–1
- 4Witt Jr. doubled to center, Isbel scored.4–1
- 3Chapman homered to left (382 feet).3–1
- 2Witt Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Isbel scored.3–0
- 2Garcia singled to left, Massey scored, Isbel to third.2–0
- 1Pasquantino singled to center, Garcia scored, Witt Jr. to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SF 64%
- ML KC +165 / SF -200
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- SF: Elo 59.2%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- SF -177
- KC +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.1 – 4.4 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | +12 | KC: Daniel Lynch IV: team allows 1.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +65 Elo | SF 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 62.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 3.78th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.96th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 21st of 3010–14 | Road vs home | 17–86th of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 16th of 301504 | Elo rating | 151912th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–26 | 24–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–17 | 10–18 |
| Underdog | 16–9 | 14–7 |
| Overs–unders | 17–33 | 27–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 3–5 SF in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.