San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jung Hoo LeeBatting2-3
- Landen RouppPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting2-3
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chapman scored on Chafin wild pitch, Schmitt to second, Flores to third.4–0
- 8Chapman scored on Chafin wild pitch, Schmitt to second on wild pitch by Chafin, Flores to third on wild pitch by Chafin.4–0
- 8Flores singled to left, Lee scored, Chapman to second.3–0
- 7Bailey walked, Adames scored, Yastrzemski to second, Schmitt to third.2–0
- 7Adames singled to center, Lee scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 51%
- ML SF -105 / WSH -115
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- WSH: Elo 46.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -104
- SF +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.7 – 3.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +3 | SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +27 Elo | SF 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.412th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.326th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.923rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 9th of 3012–12 | Road vs home | 12–1220th of 30 |
| 12th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 13th of 301516 | Elo rating | 146524th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–26 | 27–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–19 | 0–8 |
| Underdog | 14–7 | 27–15 |
| Overs–unders | 28–22 | 24–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 5–8 WSH in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 13.