Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting1-3
- Logan AllenPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Tigers- Zach McKinstryBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 13 K
Scoring summary
- 4Ibáñez scored on error, Greene safe at first on throwing error by pitcher Allen.0–5
- 4Ibáñez singled to left, Torres scored, Ibáñez to second.0–4
- 4Torres doubled to left, Báez scored.0–3
- 4McKinstry homered to right (377 feet), Malloy scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- DET 73%
- ML CLE +250 / DET -310
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.3 pts
- DET: Elo 58.3%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- DET -265
- CLE +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 2.2 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +15 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +58 Elo | DET 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 68.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 66.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.43rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 8th of 3015–14 | Road vs home | 17–85th of 30 |
| 18th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149719th of 30 |
| 15th of 301514 | Elo rating | 15316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–27 | 28–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 7–14 | 16–16 |
| Underdog | 17–13 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders | 24–27 | 29–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 17–17 DET in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 34.
- May 24CLE 7 @ DET 5Picked DET 57%Miss
- May 23CLE 3 @ DET 1Picked DET 52%Miss
- May 22CLE 7 @ DET 0Picked DET 52%Miss
- Oct 12DET 3 @ CLE 7PlayoffsPicked CLE 52%Hit
- Oct 10CLE 5 @ DET 4PlayoffsPicked CLE 52%Hit
- Oct 9CLE 0 @ DET 3PlayoffsPicked CLE 51%Miss
- Oct 7DET 3 @ CLE 0PlayoffsPicked DET 53%Hit
- Oct 5DET 0 @ CLE 7PlayoffsPicked CLE 54%Hit