San Francisco Giants at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Hayden BirdsongPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Flores singled to center, Chapman scored, Lee to second.1–3
- 5Greene singled to right, Carpenter scored and Torres scored, Greene to second, Ibáñez to third.0–3
- 4Dingler singled to left, Keith scored, Torkelson safe at third and Dingler safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Matos.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 51%
- ML SF -105 / DET -115
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- DET: Elo 56.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -104
- SF +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.2 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +10 | SF: Hayden Birdsong: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +47 Elo | DET 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.14th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.78th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +1.53rd of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 8th of 3014–13 | Road vs home | 18–84th of 30 |
| 15th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149719th of 30 |
| 13th of 301516 | Elo rating | 15336th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–28 | 29–25 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–21 | 17–16 |
| Underdog | 15–7 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders | 28–25 | 29–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 2–4 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.