San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting2-3
- Robbie RayPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Marlins- Javier SanojaBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 2Sanoja singled to center, Myers scored, Sanoja to second, Fortes to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 57%
- ML SF -150 / MIA +125
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- SF: Elo 57.5%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- SF -135
- MIA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.1 – 3.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +6 | SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +52 Elo | SF 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.628th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.427th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 9th of 3015–16 | Road vs home | 13–1624th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15074th of 30 |
| 13th of 301514 | Elo rating | 145026th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–30 | 27–28 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–21 | 1–8 |
| Underdog | 16–9 | 26–20 |
| Overs–unders | 28–29 | 32–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 7–6 MIA in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.