Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Agustin RamirezBatting4-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 0 K
Padres- Gavin SheetsBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle HartPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wagaman doubled to left, Mesa Jr. scored, Ramírez thrown out at home.10–8
- 8Ramírez singled to center, J. Sánchez scored and Norby scored, Mesa Jr. to second.9–8
- 7Sheets homered to right center (385 feet), Arraez scored.7–8
- 7Sanoja scored on Adam wild pitch.7–6
- 7Sanoja scored on Adam wild pitch.7–6
- 5Lopez homered to left center (371 feet), Ramírez scored and Wagaman scored.6–6
- 5Ramírez singled to center, Sanoja scored.3–6
- 5J. Sánchez homered to right center (371 feet).2–6
- 4Machado singled to right, Díaz scored, Tatis Jr. thrown out at home.1–6
- 4Arraez hit sacrifice fly to right, Wade scored, Díaz to third.1–5
- 4Díaz singled to left, Cronenworth scored, Wade to second.1–4
- 4Cronenworth doubled to right, Bogaerts scored and Sheets scored.1–3
- 3Ramírez homered to left (374 feet).1–1
- 2Sheets singled to left, Merrill scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 59%
- ML MIA +135 / SD -160
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- SD: Elo 63.6%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -145
- MIA +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.8 – 4.7 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −7 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Kyle Hart: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +97 Elo | SD 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 60.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.214th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 27th of 308–17 | Road vs home | 18–85th of 30 |
| 5th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149525th of 30 |
| 26th of 301449 | Elo rating | 15308th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–27 | 30–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–8 | 17–14 |
| Underdog | 25–19 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders | 31–22 | 23–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–10 SD in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.