Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting2-3, 3 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 1Ozuna homered to right center (397 feet).3–1
- 1Story doubled to left, Devers scored, Mayer scored and Toro scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML BOS -120 / ATL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 45.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -109
- ATL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.3 – 4.2 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −9 | BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +29 Elo | ATL 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.119th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.99th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3012–18 | Road vs home | 17–1013th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 21st of 301495 | Elo rating | 15278th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–30 | 26–31 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–21 | 16–24 |
| Underdog | 17–9 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 28–32 | 23–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 6–7 ATL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.