Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting2-5
- Grant HolmesPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Devers singled to center, Hamilton scored and Rafaela scored, Devers to second, Duran thrown out at third.5–1
- 6Toro doubled to right, Narváez scored.3–1
- 4Story homered to left (431 feet), Toro scored.2–1
- 1Olson singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored, Olson to second, Ozuna to second, Ozuna safe at third on throwing error by right fielder Abreu.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 60%
- ML BOS +140 / ATL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.9%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -149
- BOS +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.3 – 5.2 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −3 | BOS: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +63 Elo | ATL 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3011–17 | Road vs home | 16–913th of 30 |
| 25th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 21st of 301494 | Elo rating | 15288th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–29 | 25–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–21 | 15–23 |
| Underdog | 16–8 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 28–30 | 23–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 5–6 ATL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.