Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Dylan CarlsonBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Abraham ToroBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Toro homered to center (386 feet).2–1
- 9Carlson doubled to left, Mateo scored.2–0
- 8O'Hearn singled to right, Henderson scored, Rutschman to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML BAL +110 / BOS -130
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 54.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -119
- BAL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.1 – 4.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −20 | BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.99 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +28 Elo | BOS 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−2.0 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 26th of 308–19 | Road vs home | 16–1217th of 30 |
| 9th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149327th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301474 | Elo rating | 150218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–32 | 28–25 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–19 | 13–18 |
| Underdog | 11–13 | 15–7 |
| Overs–unders | 27–23 | 27–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 16–15 BOS in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 31.