Baltimore Orioles at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ramon LaureanoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting4-4, 2 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Contreras singled to center, Turang scored.4–5
- 7Mullins homered to right (386 feet), O'Hearn scored and Urías scored.4–4
- 5Contreras doubled to center, Turang scored.1–4
- 2Turang singled to right, Collins scored and Durbin scored, Turang thrown out at second.1–3
- 2Durbin singled to left, Hoskins scored, Durbin to second, Collins to third.1–1
- 2Laureano homered to left center (393 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML BAL +100 / MIL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 57.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -109
- BAL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.2 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −6 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Rob Zastryzny: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +52 Elo | MIL 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.9 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 26th of 307–15 | Road vs home | 13–916th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301478 | Elo rating | 151713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–30 | 23–24 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–19 | 13–11 |
| Underdog | 8–11 | 10–13 |
| Overs–unders | 23–22 | 17–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 2–4 MIL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.