New York Mets at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Tyrone TaylorBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Hunter DobbinsPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 3Taylor singled to center, Alvarez scored.1–3
- 2Duran tripled to right, Narváez scored.0–3
- 1Story reached on infield single to shortstop, Devers scored.0–2
- 1Bregman grounded out to second, Duran scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 53%
- ML NYM -125 / BOS +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- NYM: Elo 55.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -114
- BOS +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.4 – 4.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +1 | NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Hunter Dobbins: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +38 Elo | NYM 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 12th of 3012–13 | Road vs home | 12–1118th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149029th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301540 | Elo rating | 149720th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–24 | 25–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–19 | 12–16 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 13–7 |
| Overs–unders | 17–30 | 25–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 4–2 BOS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.