Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting2-4
- Mitch KellerPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Mets- Brett BatyBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Baty homered to left (365 feet).1–2
- 6Davis walked, Canario scored, Bae to second, Triolo to third.1–1
- 1Nimmo doubled to center, Soto scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 69%
- ML PIT +205 / NYM -250
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- NYM: Elo 68.6%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- NYM -218
- PIT +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.9 – 4.6 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +13 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +136 Elo | NYM 68.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 67.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.21st of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +1.63rd of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 28th of 305–15 | Road vs home | 16–42nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149523rd of 30 |
| 25th of 301456 | Elo rating | 15473rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–26 | 22–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–12 | 14–17 |
| Underdog | 13–14 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 17–25 | 16–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 5–9 NYM in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 14.