Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Isiah Kiner-FalefaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting3-5
- David PetersonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Alonso hit sacrifice fly to right, Lindor scored.3–4
- 9Hayes grounded into fielder's choice to third, Bae scored, Triolo third.3–3
- 7Alonso reached on infield single to shortstop, Acuña scored.2–3
- 7Soto grounded out to first, Taylor scored, Acuña to second.2–2
- 7Reynolds grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Triolo scored, Hayes out at second.2–1
- 4McNeil doubled to right, Nimmo scored.1–1
- 2Kiner-Falefa homered to left center (382 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 60%
- ML PIT +140 / NYM -165
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- NYM: Elo 63.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- NYM -149
- PIT +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.3 – 4.2 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +1 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +93 Elo | NYM 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.21st of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +1.63rd of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 28th of 305–14 | Road vs home | 15–42nd of 30 |
| 9th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149619th of 30 |
| 25th of 301457 | Elo rating | 15463rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–26 | 22–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–12 | 14–16 |
| Underdog | 12–14 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 17–24 | 16–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 5–8 NYM in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 13.