Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Matt GorskiBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Mets- Mark VientosBatting1-4
- Clay HolmesPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Triolo homered to left center (390 feet), Bae scored.4–0
- 2Gorski homered to left center (407 feet), Kiner-Falefa scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 70%
- ML PIT +225 / NYM -275
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- NYM: Elo 66.2%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- NYM -238
- PIT +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.8 – 4.7 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +8 | PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +117 Elo | NYM 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 67.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.21st of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +1.63rd of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 28th of 305–16 | Road vs home | 17–41st of 30 |
| 5th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149521st of 30 |
| 25th of 301456 | Elo rating | 15473rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–26 | 22–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–12 | 14–18 |
| Underdog | 14–14 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 17–26 | 16–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 5–10 NYM in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 15.