New York Mets at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Jeff McNeilBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- David PetersonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Cody BellingerBatting3-3, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Max FriedPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bellinger homered to right center (356 feet), Vivas scored, Goldschmidt scored and Grisham scored.2–8
- 8Goldschmidt singled to center, Wells scored, Vivas to second.2–4
- 8Vivas grounded into fielder's choice to first, Domínguez scored on throwing error by first baseman Alonso, Wells safe at third on error.2–3
- 5McNeil scored on Fried wild pitch.2–2
- 5McNeil scored on Fried wild pitch.2–2
- 2McNeil singled to center, Vientos scored, Nimmo to second.1–2
- 1Bellinger doubled to second, Goldschmidt scored and Judge scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 61%
- ML NYM +145 / NYY -175
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.2%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -156
- NYM +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.3 – 5.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +12 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +36 Elo | NYY 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.73rd of 30 |
| 1st of 303.2 | Runs allowed | 3.99th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +1.91st of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 10th of 3012–12 | Road vs home | 14–915th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15048th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301543 | Elo rating | 15502nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–23 | 24–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–19 | 20–18 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 16–30 | 21–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 7–3 NYY in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 10.