New York Mets at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching2.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Paul GoldschmidtBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lindor doubled to left, Alvarez scored, McNeil to third.2–6
- 4Domínguez grounded into fielder's choice to second, Bellinger scored, Goldschmidt out at second.1–6
- 4Goldschmidt singled to left, Judge scored, Bellinger to third.1–5
- 4Nimmo singled to left, Soto scored, Vientos to second.1–4
- 3Peraza walked, Goldschmidt scored, Wells to second, Domínguez to third.0–4
- 3Volpe hit sacrifice fly to right, Bellinger scored, Goldschmidt to third.0–3
- 3Goldschmidt reached on infield single to shortstop, Judge scored on throwing error by shortstop Lindor and Vivas scored, Goldschmidt to second, Bellinger safe at third on error.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML NYM +125 / NYY -150
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 54.8%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -135
- NYM +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.9 – 4.6 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | 0 | NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +33 Elo | NYY 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.82nd of 30 |
| 1st of 303.2 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +1.92nd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 10th of 3011–11 | Road vs home | 13–815th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301544 | Elo rating | 15492nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–22 | 23–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–19 | 19–17 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 16–28 | 21–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 6–2 NYY in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 8.