Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jackson HollidayBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting4-6, 2 HR, 8 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Mountcastle hit sacrifice fly to right, Holliday scored.5–19
- 9Holliday doubled to right, Mateo scored.4–19
- 8Narváez doubled to right, Refsnyder scored and Story scored.3–19
- 8Refsnyder singled to center, Toro scored.3–17
- 8Devers homered to right center (404 feet), Sogard scored, Campbell scored and Duran scored.3–16
- 8Duran walked, Narváez scored, Campbell to second, Sogard to third.3–12
- 8Refsnyder homered to left (359 feet), Devers scored and Toro scored.3–11
- 8Devers singled to left, Duran scored.3–8
- 8Duran doubled to center, Rafaela scored, Duran to third.3–7
- 8Urías singled to right, Rutschman scored, O'Hearn to second, Mountcastle to third.3–6
- 6Devers homered to right center (408 feet), Rafaela scored and Duran scored.2–6
- 6Duran singled to center, Campbell scored, Rafaela to third.2–3
- 6Rafaela singled to center, Sogard scored, Campbell to third.2–2
- 4Sogard grounded out to third, Story scored, Narváez to second.2–1
- 3Rutschman grounded out to shortstop, Mateo scored, Holliday to second.2–0
- 3Holliday singled to right, Kjerstad scored, Mateo to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML BAL +110 / BOS -130
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 55.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -119
- BAL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.6 – 4.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −3 | BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +41 Elo | BOS 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.523rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.8 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 26th of 308–17 | Road vs home | 14–1219th of 30 |
| 9th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149425th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301479 | Elo rating | 149818th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–31 | 27–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–19 | 12–17 |
| Underdog | 10–12 | 15–7 |
| Overs–unders | 25–23 | 25–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 16–13 BOS in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 29.