New York Mets at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lindor homered to left (363 feet).5–1
- 7Soto hit sacrifice fly to center, Acuña scored, Lindor to third.4–1
- 7Baty singled to left, Taylor scored and Torrens scored, Acuña to second.3–1
- 5Duran hit sacrifice fly to right, Sogard scored, Narváez to third.1–1
- 2Baty singled to center, Vientos scored, Torrens thrown out at home.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 58%
- ML NYM +130 / BOS -155
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 51.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -140
- NYM +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.4 – 4.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +15 | NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +10 Elo | BOS 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 4.523rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 15th of 3012–15 | Road vs home | 14–1117th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149328th of 30 |
| 6th of 301537 | Elo rating | 150118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–26 | 27–23 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–21 | 12–16 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 15–7 |
| Overs–unders | 17–32 | 25–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 4–4 BOS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.