New York Mets at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-3
- Clay HolmesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Devers homered to left center (362 feet).0–2
- 5Narváez homered to left center (366 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 57%
- ML NYM -145 / BOS +120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- NYM: Elo 52.9%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- NYM -130
- BOS +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.5 – 4.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +7 | NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · BOS: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +20 Elo | NYM 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 13th of 3012–14 | Road vs home | 13–1117th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149129th of 30 |
| 4th of 301538 | Elo rating | 149918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–25 | 26–23 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–20 | 12–16 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 14–7 |
| Overs–unders | 17–31 | 25–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 4–3 BOS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.