Baltimore Orioles at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting2-6, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Rhys HoskinsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chad PatrickPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 11Rutschman homered to left (384 feet), Mateo scored and Holliday scored.8–4
- 11Holliday singled to center, Kjerstad scored, Holliday to second, Mateo to third.5–4
- 10Chourio singled to left, Collins scored, Chourio out stretching at second.4–4
- 10O'Hearn singled to left, Henderson scored.4–3
- 9Durbin singled to right, Frelick scored, Cameron to second.3–3
- 8Kjerstad singled to left, O'Hearn scored on error, Kjerstad safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Bauers, Rivera safe at third on error.3–2
- 8Mullins hit sacrifice fly to center, Henderson scored.2–2
- 6Hoskins homered to left center (404 feet).1–2
- 5Turang grounded out to pitcher, Durbin scored.1–1
- 4O'Hearn singled to center, Henderson scored, Mountcastle to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 51%
- ML BAL -105 / MIL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 56.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -104
- BAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.2 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | +4 | BAL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 1.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIL: Chad Patrick: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +43 Elo | MIL 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.215th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.318th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.9 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 27th of 307–17 | Road vs home | 15–915th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301476 | Elo rating | 151912th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–31 | 24–25 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–19 | 14–12 |
| Underdog | 9–12 | 10–13 |
| Overs–unders | 24–23 | 18–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 2–6 MIL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.