Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter DobbinsPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Devers singled to center, Rafaela scored.5–6
- 6Sogard grounded out to shortstop, Abreu scored, Narváez to third.5–5
- 6Narváez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Devers scored on error by shortstop Gunnar Henderson, Abreu safe at third, Narváez safe at second.5–4
- 5Toro homered to right center (386 feet).5–3
- 5Rutschman scored on Newcomb wild pitch, O'Hearn to second, Henderson to third.5–2
- 5Rutschman scored on Newcomb wild pitch, O'Hearn to second on wild pitch by Newcomb, Henderson to third on wild pitch by Newcomb.5–2
- 5Henderson doubled to center, Holliday scored, Rutschman to third.4–2
- 5Holliday grounded into fielder's choice to second, Kjerstad scored, Rivera out at second.3–2
- 1Abreu homered to right (399 feet).2–2
- 1Duran homered to right center (393 feet).2–1
- 1Urías doubled to center, Henderson scored and Rutschman scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 50%
- ML BAL -110 / BOS -110
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 55.4%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -100
- BAL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.8 – 4.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +6 | BAL: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Hunter Dobbins: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +37 Elo | BOS 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−2.0 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 26th of 308–18 | Road vs home | 15–1218th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149327th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301475 | Elo rating | 150218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–32 | 28–24 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–19 | 13–17 |
| Underdog | 10–13 | 15–7 |
| Overs–unders | 26–23 | 26–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 16–14 BOS in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 30.