Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Sean MurphyBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- AJ Smith-ShawverPitching2.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Phillies- Rafael MarchanBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Marchán hit by pitch, Rojas scored, Marsh to second, Kepler to third.4–5
- 8Harris II doubled to right, Acuña Jr. scored.4–4
- 8Murphy homered to left center (412 feet).3–4
- 7Schwarber homered to right (438 feet).2–4
- 6Acuña Jr. singled to left, Olson scored, Murphy to second.2–3
- 6Murphy singled to left, Riley scored, Olson to second.1–3
- 5Turner reached on infield single to third, Marchán scored, Stott to second.0–3
- 3Marchán homered to right (359 feet), Marsh scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 60%
- ML ATL +140 / PHI -165
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -149
- ATL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.3 – 4.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +9 | ATL: AJ Smith-Shawver: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +42 Elo | PHI 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 10th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.013th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 27th of 309–19 | Road vs home | 18–85th of 30 |
| 9th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 148930th of 30 |
| 9th of 301525 | Elo rating | 15434th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–30 | 28–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–23 | 22–22 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 21–32 | 23–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 18–16 PHI in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 34.