Philadelphia Phillies at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Athletics- Jacob WilsonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gunnar HoglundPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8MacIver singled to center, Butler scored.4–5
- 8Butler tripled to right, Davidson scored.4–4
- 8Turner homered to left (343 feet).4–3
- 5Turner hit sacrifice fly to center, Bohm scored.3–3
- 3Turner singled to center, Marsh scored.2–3
- 2Realmuto grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Schwarber scored, Kepler out at second, Castellanos to third.1–3
- 1Davidson doubled to left, Andujar scored and Rooker scored.0–3
- 1Wilson homered to left center (420 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 64%
- ML PHI -200 / ATH +165
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 62.6%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -177
- ATH +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 5.4 – 4.1 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −8 | PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Gunnar Hoglund: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +90 Elo | PHI 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −1.527th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 1st of 3017–10 | Road vs home | 8–1929th of 30 |
| 30th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 149525th of 30 |
| 4th of 301543 | Elo rating | 144528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–25 | 27–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 21–21 | 5–11 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 22–15 |
| Overs–unders | 23–29 | 31–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 6–2 ATH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
