Philadelphia Phillies at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 11Castellanos hit sacrifice fly to right, Schwarber scored.9–6
- 11Schwarber doubled to right, Turner scored and Kepler scored, Schwarber to third.8–6
- 9Kepler homered to right center (400 feet).6–6
- 8Rooker homered to center (410 feet).5–6
- 7Harper singled to center, Marsh scored.5–5
- 6Soderstrom singled to right, Kurtz scored, Rooker to second, Wilson to third.4–5
- 6Kurtz singled to center, Butler scored.4–4
- 6Schwarber homered to right (376 feet).4–3
- 5Andujar singled to center, Langeliers scored.3–3
- 4Bohm homered to left (362 feet).3–2
- 2Wilson singled to right, Urías scored, Kurtz to second.2–2
- 2Andujar scored on Sánchez wild pitch, Urías to third.2–1
- 2Andujar scored on Sánchez wild pitch, Urías to third on wild pitch by Sánchez.2–1
- 1Castellanos doubled to center, Harper scored.2–0
- 1Turner scored, Harper safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Urías.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 60%
- ML PHI -165 / ATH +140
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 61.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -149
- ATH +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 5.7 – 4.8 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +11 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +79 Elo | PHI 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.216th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.727th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −1.427th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 1st of 3016–10 | Road vs home | 8–1829th of 30 |
| 29th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 149426th of 30 |
| 4th of 301541 | Elo rating | 144727th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–25 | 27–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 20–21 | 5–11 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 22–14 |
| Overs–unders | 22–29 | 30–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–2 ATH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.
