Philadelphia Phillies at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kurtz homered to center (425 feet), Rooker scored and Langeliers scored.4–3
- 9Turner singled to center, Rojas scored.4–0
- 9Rojas singled to right, Bohm scored.3–0
- 9Bohm doubled to center, Realmuto scored.2–0
- 1Turner homered to center (426 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 64%
- ML PHI -205 / ATH +170
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 65.7%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- PHI -181
- ATH +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 5.4 – 4.1 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −26 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 1.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +113 Elo | PHI 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 64.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.727th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −1.527th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3015–10 | Road vs home | 8–1729th of 30 |
| 29th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 149425th of 30 |
| 4th of 301540 | Elo rating | 144827th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–24 | 26–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 20–20 | 5–11 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders | 22–28 | 30–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–2 ATH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.
