Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Jordan BeckBatting2-5
- German MarquezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Kepler doubled to right, Schwarber scored.2–0
- 4Harper doubled to left, Stott scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 69%
- ML PHI -250 / COL +205
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 68.3%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- PHI -218
- COL +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 6.6 – 4.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1395 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −14 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: German Marquez: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +134 Elo | PHI 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 72.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 71.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.328th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 6.630th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −3.230th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3014–10 | Road vs home | 5–1930th of 30 |
| 28th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 15142nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301539 | Elo rating | 139530th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–23 | 17–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–19 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 15–29 |
| Overs–unders | 22–27 | 22–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 15–4 COL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 19.