Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Jordan BeckBatting1-4
- Chase DollanderPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 1Marte homered to right center (393 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 72%
- ML COL +240 / ARI -300
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- ARI: Elo 69.5%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- ARI -255
- COL +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.7 – 5.8 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1400 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +8 | COL: Chase Dollander: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +143 Elo | ARI 69.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 70.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 70.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 5.35th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.6 | Runs allowed | 5.224th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.2 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 30th of 303–21 | Road vs home | 12–1321st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 15151st of 30 |
| 30th of 301400 | Elo rating | 152410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–29 | 22–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 14–16 |
| Underdog | 14–26 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders | 20–25 | 23–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 8–20 ARI in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 28.