Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting3-4
- Justin VerlanderPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Koss singled to right, Adames scored, Koss thrown out at second.2–1
- 5Carroll homered to center (419 feet).2–0
- 3Carroll homered to left center (381 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 53%
- ML ARI -125 / SF +105
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- ARI: Elo 50.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -114
- SF +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.4 – 4.1 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −11 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +4 Elo | ARI 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.97th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 4th of 3010–8 | Road vs home | 12–57th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301521 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 10th of 301524 | Elo rating | 151513th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–21 | 21–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–13 | 9–13 |
| Underdog | 7–8 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders | 20–21 | 24–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 14–12 SF in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 26.