Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Giants- Jung Hoo LeeBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hayden BirdsongPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wade Jr. walked, Chapman scored, Bailey to second, Adames to third.8–7
- 7Lee homered to right center (393 feet), Flores scored.8–6
- 4Ramos doubled to left, Villar scored and Matos scored.8–4
- 4Marte homered to right center (417 feet), Carroll scored.8–2
- 3Suárez homered to left (388 feet), Gurriel Jr. scored and Naylor scored.6–2
- 2Ramos hit sacrifice fly to right, Huff scored, Villar to third.3–2
- 2Koss singled to right, Adames scored, Villar to second, Huff to third.3–1
- 2Thomas singled to left, Smith scored, Perdomo to second.3–0
- 2Perdomo singled to right, Suárez scored, Smith to third.2–0
- 1Marte homered to right (364 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML ARI -115 / SF -105
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- ARI: Elo 46.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -104
- SF +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.3 – 4.2 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −25 | −9 | ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 1.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Jordan Hicks: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +27 Elo | SF 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.97th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 5th of 3011–9 | Road vs home | 13–69th of 30 |
| 1st of 301520 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 10th of 301523 | Elo rating | 151713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–23 | 23–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–15 | 9–13 |
| Underdog | 7–8 | 14–7 |
| Overs–unders | 21–22 | 25–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 15–13 SF in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 28.