Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Josh NaylorBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Giants- Christian KossBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Naylor homered to right (413 feet), Suárez scored.6–10
- 8Lee homered to right (352 feet), Yastrzemski scored and Ramos scored.4–10
- 7Carroll homered to left center (399 feet).4–7
- 5Wade Jr. scored on Morillo wild pitch, Koss to second on wild pitch by Morillo.3–7
- 5Wade Jr. scored on Morillo wild pitch, Koss to second on wild pitch by Morillo.3–7
- 5Adames homered to left center (377 feet), Flores scored.3–6
- 2Koss homered to left (369 feet), Flores scored, Adames scored and Bailey scored.3–4
- 1Naylor singled to center, Grichuk scored and Suárez scored.3–0
- 1Suárez doubled to left, Carroll scored, Grichuk to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML ARI -115 / SF -105
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- ARI: Elo 47.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -104
- SF +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.8 – 3.7 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +18 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +21 Elo | SF 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.87th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 4th of 3011–8 | Road vs home | 12–69th of 30 |
| 1st of 301521 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 9th of 301525 | Elo rating | 151413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–22 | 22–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–14 | 9–13 |
| Underdog | 7–8 | 13–7 |
| Overs–unders | 20–22 | 24–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 15–12 SF in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 27.