Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Jordan BeckBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- German MarquezPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tovar singled to right, Beck scored.14–12
- 8Naylor doubled to center, Moreno scored.13–12
- 7Beck homered to left (384 feet), Toglia scored.13–11
- 7Toglia doubled to left, Freeman scored.11–11
- 6Farmer doubled to center, McMahon scored and Goodman scored.10–11
- 6Goodman singled to left, Toglia scored and Beck scored.8–11
- 5Suárez hit sacrifice fly to center, Gurriel Jr. scored.6–11
- 4Carroll singled to right, Perdomo scored.6–10
- 4Thomas homered to right (378 feet).6–9
- 4Suárez homered to left (425 feet).6–8
- 3Perdomo scored on error, Gurriel Jr. safe at first on throwing error by third baseman McMahon, Marte to second.6–7
- 3Farmer homered to left center (391 feet), McMahon scored.6–6
- 3Tovar homered to left center (425 feet).4–6
- 2Smith singled to right, Gurriel Jr. scored.3–6
- 2Gurriel Jr. tripled to center, Perdomo scored and Marte scored.3–5
- 1Moreno grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Smith scored on error, Suárez safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Tovar, Suárez safe at third on error.3–3
- 1Suárez singled to left, Marte scored, Smith to second.3–2
- 1Marte singled to right, Carroll scored.3–1
- 1Goodman homered to left (419 feet), Tovar scored.3–0
- 1Beck homered to center (419 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 76.7% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 76%
- ML COL +295 / ARI -375
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- ARI: Elo 70.8%, market 75.7%
- Fair odds
- ARI -312
- COL +312 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.5 – 6.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1398 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +2 | COL: German Marquez: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +154 Elo | ARI 70.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 74.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 74.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 75.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.4 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.3 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–21 | Road vs home | 12–1220th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 15171st of 30 |
| 30th of 301398 | Elo rating | 15269th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–29 | 22–23 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 14–15 |
| Underdog | 13–26 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders | 19–25 | 22–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 7–20 ARI in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 27.