Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting1-4
- Carson PalmquistPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 0 K
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-3, 3 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Perdomo doubled to right, Moreno scored, Thomas to third.0–8
- 7Suárez singled to center, Perdomo scored and Marte scored.0–7
- 4Perdomo hit sacrifice fly to left, Moreno scored.0–5
- 4Moreno doubled to left, Grichuk scored.0–4
- 3Suárez hit sacrifice fly to right, Carroll scored.0–3
- 2Perdomo grounded out to third, Moreno scored, Tawa to third.0–2
- 2Tawa doubled to left, Naylor scored, Moreno to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 76.7% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 76%
- ML COL +300 / ARI -385
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- ARI: Elo 68.0%, market 76.0%
- Fair odds
- ARI -318
- COL +318 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 5.5 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1400 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +3 | COL: Carson Palmquist (no track record yet) · ARI: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +131 Elo | ARI 68.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 73.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 72.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 76.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.4 | Runs allowed | 5.124th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.2 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–20 | Road vs home | 11–1220th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 15201st of 30 |
| 30th of 301400 | Elo rating | 152410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–28 | 21–23 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 13–15 |
| Underdog | 13–25 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders | 19–24 | 22–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 7–19 ARI in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 26.