Colorado Rockies at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Kyle FarmerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Antonio SenzatelaPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 6A. García homered to right center (394 feet), Pederson scored.3–8
- 6Farmer homered to left center (392 feet), Doyle scored.3–6
- 5Burger doubled to center, Carter scored and Jung scored.1–6
- 2Toglia homered to left (416 feet).1–4
- 1Carter grounded into fielder's choice to second, A. García scored, Jung out at second, Semien to third.0–4
- 1Jung walked, Pederson scored, Semien to second, A. García to third.0–3
- 1Langford homered to right center (368 feet), Smith scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 66%
- ML COL +185 / TEX -225
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- TEX: Elo 66.2%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- TEX -197
- COL +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.5 – 5.0 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1402 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −4 | COL: Antonio Senzatela: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TEX: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +117 Elo | TEX 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 67.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 67.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 3.428th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.4 | Runs allowed | 3.53rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.1 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–19 | Road vs home | 14–810th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 149718th of 30 |
| 30th of 301402 | Elo rating | 149520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–27 | 21–22 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 10–12 |
| Underdog | 13–24 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 18–24 | 13–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–5 TEX in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.