Colorado Rockies at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting2-4
- Chase DollanderPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Langford homered to center (412 feet), Duran scored.1–2
- 2Martini singled to right, Goodman scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 69%
- ML COL +210 / TEX -255
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- TEX: Elo 66.3%, market 69.0%
- Fair odds
- TEX -223
- COL +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.4 – 5.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1404 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +11 | COL: Chase Dollander: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TEX: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +118 Elo | TEX 66.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 67.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 67.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 69.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 3.426th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.5 | Runs allowed | 3.66th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.2 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–17 | Road vs home | 12–816th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 30th of 301404 | Elo rating | 149321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–26 | 20–21 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 9–11 |
| Underdog | 12–23 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 18–22 | 13–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–3 TEX in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.