Colorado Rockies at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Josh JungBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jung homered to left center (392 feet).1–4
- 1Jung homered to right center (396 feet), Haggerty scored and Langford scored.1–3
- 1Goodman singled to center, Beck scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 68%
- ML COL +200 / TEX -240
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- TEX: Elo 62.8%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- TEX -212
- COL +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.4 – 5.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1403 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −19 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.95 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +91 Elo | TEX 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 65.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 3.428th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.4 | Runs allowed | 3.66th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.1 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–18 | Road vs home | 13–814th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 30th of 301403 | Elo rating | 149420th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–26 | 20–22 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 9–12 |
| Underdog | 13–23 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 18–23 | 13–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–4 TEX in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.