Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Rockies- Tyler FreemanBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Antonio SenzatelaPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9McMahon singled to center, Moniak scored on error, McMahon safe at second on fielding error by center fielder Marsh.7–4
- 9Moniak singled to right, Doyle scored.7–3
- 7Amador singled to center, Freeman scored.7–2
- 7Marsh singled to left, Realmuto scored, Bohm to second.7–1
- 7Bohm singled to left, Castellanos scored, Realmuto to second.6–1
- 7Schwarber homered to center (430 feet).5–1
- 5Kepler doubled to center, Schwarber scored.4–1
- 4Freeman singled to left, Doyle scored.3–1
- 1Castellanos hit sacrifice fly to center, Harper scored.3–0
- 1Harper doubled to left, Stott scored and Turner scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 70%
- ML PHI -275 / COL +225
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 68.5%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -238
- COL +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 6.7 – 4.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1398 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −13 | PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Antonio Senzatela: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +135 Elo | PHI 68.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 72.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 72.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.328th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 6.530th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −3.230th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 6th of 3012–10 | Road vs home | 5–1730th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15141st of 30 |
| 5th of 301536 | Elo rating | 139830th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–23 | 17–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–19 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 15–27 |
| Overs–unders | 21–26 | 21–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 13–4 COL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 17.