Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Alexander CanarioBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Triolo walked, Canario scored, Gorski to second, Frazier to third.4–8
- 8Castellanos grounded out to shortstop, Harper scored, Schwarber to second.3–8
- 8Harper singled to right, Turner scored.3–7
- 8Turner tripled to right, Rojas scored.3–6
- 7Bohm hit sacrifice fly to center, Schwarber scored.3–5
- 7Realmuto walked, Harper scored, Castellanos to second, Schwarber to third.3–4
- 7Castellanos hit by pitch, Turner scored, Schwarber to second, Harper to third.3–3
- 7Schwarber walked, Rojas scored, Harper to second, Turner to third.3–2
- 6Canario homered to right center (391 feet), McCutchen scored and Hayes scored.3–1
- 5Harper singled to left, Rojas scored, Turner to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 67%
- ML PIT +195 / PHI -235
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 60.7%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -207
- PIT +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.0 – 5.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −8 | PIT: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +76 Elo | PHI 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 65.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 28th of 306–16 | Road vs home | 14–811th of 30 |
| 5th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 25th of 301459 | Elo rating | 15317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–26 | 21–22 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–12 | 15–18 |
| Underdog | 15–14 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 17–27 | 19–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 7–6 PHI in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.