Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Edmundo SosaBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sosa homered to left (367 feet), Castellanos scored.9–3
- 9Schwarber homered to right (466 feet).7–3
- 8Turner doubled to right, Marsh scored and Sosa scored.6–3
- 8Bohm homered to center (422 feet), Castellanos scored.4–3
- 7Harper hit sacrifice fly to center, Marsh scored.2–3
- 6Doyle hit a ground rule double, Toglia scored.1–3
- 5Harper singled to left, Turner scored.1–2
- 3Tovar singled to right, Beck scored.0–2
- 1Tovar homered to left (418 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 68%
- ML PHI -245 / COL +200
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 67.9%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -213
- COL +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 6.1 – 4.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1400 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | 0 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +130 Elo | PHI 67.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 71.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 71.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.328th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 6.430th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −3.130th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 8th of 3011–10 | Road vs home | 5–1630th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15141st of 30 |
| 6th of 301535 | Elo rating | 140030th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–23 | 17–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–19 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 15–26 |
| Overs–unders | 20–26 | 20–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 12–4 COL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 16.