Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting1-4
- Paul SkenesPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting1-3
- Mick AbelPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 5Marsh grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Castellanos scored, Kepler out at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 52%
- ML PIT -125 / PHI -105
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 42%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 39%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.4 pts
- PIT: Elo 38.6%, market 52.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -108
- PHI +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.3 – 4.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −2 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Mick Abel (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +81 Elo | PHI 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 52.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 28th of 306–18 | Road vs home | 16–89th of 30 |
| 4th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 26th of 301456 | Elo rating | 15347th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–28 | 23–22 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–12 | 17–18 |
| Underdog | 15–16 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 18–28 | 20–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 7–8 PHI in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.