Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Rockies- Nick MartiniBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carson PalmquistPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Goodman singled to left, Amador scored.9–5
- 9Tovar singled to center, Martini scored, Tovar out stretching at second, Amador to third.9–4
- 6Realmuto homered to left (418 feet), Schwarber scored.9–3
- 5Bohm singled to right, Castellanos scored, Realmuto thrown out at third.7–3
- 4Martini homered to right center (388 feet).6–3
- 3Realmuto doubled to right, Castellanos scored on fielding error by right fielder Moniak and Schwarber scored.6–2
- 3Harper homered to center (437 feet).4–2
- 3Turner homered to left center (424 feet).3–2
- 2Amador singled to left, Farmer scored.2–2
- 1Goodman singled to center, Beck scored.2–1
- 1Castellanos hit sacrifice fly to left, Harper scored.2–0
- 1Turner scored on throwing error by catcher Goodman, Harper stole third.1–0
- 1Turner scored on throwing error by catcher Goodman, Harper stole third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 62%
- ML PHI -185 / COL +155
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 63.7%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -166
- COL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 6.3 – 5.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1397 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | +3 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 1.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Carson Palmquist: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +98 Elo | PHI 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 63.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.328th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 6.530th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −3.230th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 4th of 3013–10 | Road vs home | 5–1830th of 30 |
| 27th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15142nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301538 | Elo rating | 139730th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–23 | 17–31 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–19 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 15–28 |
| Overs–unders | 21–27 | 21–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 14–4 COL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 18.